The Causes and Timing of Iraq's Wars: a Power Cycle Assessment

Abstract

The application of power cycle theory to Iraq's war decisions reveals the dynamics of an increasingly competitive Middle East system. Iraq's power share rose sharply from 1975 to an abrupt inflection by 1980, just after Iran's inflected decline, an explosive mix that provided the context for Saddam Hussein's decision to invade Iran. Although Iraq gained slowly in relative power during the war with Iran, by 1987 Iraq had entered a period of decline relative to its Gulf rivals that continued through its invasion of Kuwait. The relative power winners, at Iraq's expense, were Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. That Iraq was in relative decline before invading Kuwait reconciles the seeming contradiction of Iraq as both an expansive potential hegemon and a desperate war-exhausted economy.