The Prognostic Value of Alpha-Fetoprotein Ratio in Patients With Resectable Alpha-Fetoprotein-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Abstract

Purpose This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ratio in patients with AFP-negative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Patients and Methods We retrospectively analyzed 600 AFP-negative HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy. The AFP ratio was calculated as the ratio of AFP level 1 week before surgery to the level 20-40 days after hepatectomy. Immunohistochemistry assay was used to assess protein expression in HCC tissue. The primary outcome measures were overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Results The study found that a cutoff value of 1.6 ng/ml for AFP ratio, determined using X-tile software, was optimal for predicting prognosis. Patients with a high AFP ratio had a worse prognosis compare to those with a low AFP ratio (DFS, P = .026; OS, P = .034). Patients with a high AFP ratio had a worse prognosis compared to those with a low AFP ratio. Multivariate analysis revealed that AFP ratio >1.6, negative HepPar-1 expression, and vascular invasion were independent predictors of both DFS and OS. Vascular invasion had a higher area under the curve (AUC) than AFP ratio and HepPar-1 expression in predicting recurrence and death. The combination of AFP ratio, HepPar-1 expression, and vascular invasion provided better predictive accuracy for DFS and OS. Conclusion The AFP ratio is a potential prognostic marker for AFP-negative HCC patients after hepatectomy. Combining the analysis of AFP ratio with HepPar-1 expression and vascular invasion can enhance the accuracy of predicting prognosis in these patients.