Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Breast Cancer Patients With Multi-Organ Metastases: An Analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program Database

Abstract

Background Multi-organ metastases represent a substantial life-threatening risk for breast cancer (BC) patients. Nonetheless, the current dearth of assessment tools for patients with multi-organ metastatic BC adversely impacts their evaluation. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of BC patients with multi-organ metastases using data from the SEER database from 2010 to 2019. The patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort and a validation cohort in a 7:3 ratio. Univariate COX regression analysis, the LASSO, and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors in the training set. Based on these factors, a nomogram was constructed to estimate overall survival (OS) probability for BC patients with multi-organ metastases. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using C-indexes, ROC curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA) curves, and the risk classification system for validation. Results A total of 3626 BC patients with multi-organ metastases were included in the study, with 2538 patients in the training cohort and 1088 patients in the validation cohort. Age, grade, metastasis location, surgery, chemotherapy, and subtype were identified as significant independent prognostic factors for OS in BC patients with multi-organ metastases. A nomogram for predicting 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS was constructed. The evaluation metrics, including C-indexes, ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA curves, demonstrated the excellent predictive performance of the nomogram. Additionally, the risk grouping system effectively stratified BC patients with multi-organ metastases into distinct prognostic categories. Conclusion The developed nomogram showed high accuracy in predicting the survival probability of BC patients with multi-organ metastases, providing valuable information for patient counseling and treatment decision making.