Accuracy of the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator for Predicting Postoperative Complications in Gastric Cancer Following Open Gastrectomy

Abstract

Introduction The prediction of complications before gastric surgery is of utmost importance in shared decision making and proper counseling of the patient in order to minimize postoperative complications. Our aim was to evaluate the predictive validity of American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) risk calculator in gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy. Methods Preoperative assessment data of 432 patients were retrospectively reviewed and manually entered into the calculator. The accuracy of the calculator was evaluated using Pearson’s chi-squared test, C-statistic, Brier score, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results The lowest Brier scores were observed in urinary tract infection, renal failure, venous thromboembolism, pneumonia, and cardiac complications. Best results were obtained for predicting sepsis, discharge to rehabilitation facility, and death (low Brier scores, C-statistic >.7, and Hosmer-Lemeshow P > .05). Conclusion The calculator had a strong performance in predicting sepsis, discharge to the rehabilitation facility, and death. However, it performed poor in predicting the most commonly observed events (any or serious complication and surgical site infection).