Exit, or Voice? A Quantitative Investigation of Out Migration Intentionality From Venezuela

Abstract

Executive Summary Why some residents around the world facing chronic and acute stressors seek to exit their home communities while others do not, remains an unanswered question. People living in Venezuela face poverty, inflation, and food shortages and hold strong reasons to seek life elsewhere. Using a new survey of 100 residents in two communities in Venezuela — Santa Rita and Maracaibo — we qualitatively and quantitatively capture the intention to leave a failing state along a variety of potential explanatory characteristics at the individual and environmental levels. Testing the relationship with several sets of factors, including social capital, access to critical infrastructure, and anxiety about the political and economic environment, we find that optimism and access to electricity strongly correlate with intention to depart. Venezuelans who hold positive views of the future and have more regular access to electricity indicate less desire to emigrate, while individual and communal resources like social capital and individual resources like access to US dollars have no measurable impact. These findings bring with them important policy recommendations for NGOs and policymakers alike. Policies that promote optimism and psychological well-being within communities may indirectly contribute to reducing emigration intentions. Moreover, policymakers should be aware of the limits of bonding ties in helping communities experiencing multidimensional shocks. Our findings also point to the limited effectiveness of external resources in fostering a desire to stay and improve local conditions, and instead reinforce the importance of critical conditions at home.