Turnout and Incumbency in Local Elections

Abstract

It is well established that incumbents win reelection at high rates. But we know less about the ways in which institutional variation affects the incumbency advantage. Using data from more than 4,000 cities, evidence in this article indicates that institutions generating low-participation environments increase the proportion of city council incumbents who run for reelection and the proportion who win. These low-turnout environments are shown to have spending patterns that benefit particular subgroups in the population who have good reason to participate even when the costs are high.