The Proximate Polity

Abstract

The author develops a theory for understanding local developmental goods expenditures in metropolitan areas. The basis of the theory is that local officials seek to minimize the economic and political risks of policy failure by anticipating how their policy choices are likely to influence the movement of people and firms into and out of jurisdictions. The theory is tested on a data set of 1,500 cities that make up 15 randomly selected metropolitan areas using spatial-lag and spatial mixed models. Statistically significant spatial autocorrelation and spatially lagged explanatory variables support the theory and lead to inferences about which populations matter most to local politicians.