The Onset of Ethnic War

Abstract

This article develops a general theory regarding the onset of ethnic war, starting with two analytic innovations: a mechanism-based approach toward social facts and an emphasis on dynamic interactions. I deploy two meta-mechanisms – the security dilemma/spiral model and intergroup-intragroup interactions – as meta-synthesizers. I then bring together the numerous factors and mechanisms scattered in the literature into a more integrative and dynamic theory of ethnic war by linking factors with immediate drivers of conflictual behavior via the two meta-mechanisms. The resulting theory not only integrates numerous factors and mechanisms identified within the existing literature, but it also reveals previously hidden or neglected factors, interactions, and mechanisms that point to fruitful directions for future inquires.