Coronavirus (COVID-19): ARIMA-based Time-series Analysis to Forecast near Future and the Effect of School Reopening in India

Author:

Tandon Hiteshi1,Ranjan Prabhat2,Chakraborty Tanmoy3,Suhag Vandana4

Affiliation:

1. Department of Chemistry, Manipal University Jaipur, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

2. Department of Mechatronics Engineering, Manipal University Jaipur, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

3. Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, School of Basic Sciences and Research, Sharda University, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India

4. Department of Applied Sciences, BML Munjal University, Gurugram, Haryana, India

Abstract

COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. In such grave circumstances, it is very important to predict future scenario to support prevention and recurrence of the disease, aid in healthcare service preparation and help in decision making process. Following that notion, a model has been developed for forecasting future COVID-19 cases in India. The time series analysis indicates that the cases will keep on increasing in India in the coming month as the peak has not been attained until now. A statistical analysis based on the effect of reopening of schools has also been performed. It is revealed that there will be a minor increase in the active cases when pre-/primary schools are opened. The present prediction models will assist the government and medical personnel in gaining insight and planning for forthcoming conditions.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Health Policy

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