Personalized Prediction of Change in Fasting Blood Glucose Following Basal Insulin Adjustment in People With Type 2 Diabetes: A Proof-of-Concept Study

Abstract

Aims: For people with type 2 diabetes treated with basal insulin, suboptimal glycemic control due to clinical inertia is a common issue. Determining the optimal basal insulin dose can be difficult, as it varies between individuals. Thus, insulin titration can be slow and cautious which may lead to treatment fatigue and non-adherence. A model that predicts changes in fasting blood glucose (FBG) after adjusting basal insulin dose may lead to more optimal titration, reducing some of these challenges. Objective: To predict the change in FBG following adjustment of basal insulin in people with type 2 diabetes using a machine learning framework. Methods: A multiple linear regression model was developed based on 786 adults with type 2 diabetes. Data were divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) sets using a ranking approach. Forward feature selection and fivefold cross-validation were used to select features. Results: Participants had a mean age of approximately 59 years, a mean duration of diabetes of 12 years, and a mean HbA1c at screening of 65 mmol/mol (8.1%). Chosen features were FBG at week 2, basal insulin dose adjustment from week 2 to 7, trial site, hemoglobin level, and alkaline phosphatase level. The model achieved a relative absolute error of 0.67, a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.74, and a coefficient of determination of 0.55. Conclusions: A model using FBG, insulin doses, and blood samples can predict a five-week change in FBG after adjusting the basal insulin dose in people with type 2 diabetes. Implementation of such a model can potentially help optimize titration and improve glycemic control.