Beyond the Ballot: The Impact of Voting Margin and Turnout on the Legitimacy of Referendum Outcomes in Europe

Abstract

This study delves into the criteria under which referendums can legitimise political choices. It employs survey experiments regarding EU membership across seven European nations, focusing on variations in referendum outcomes, majority margins and voter participation. The empirical results reveal a consistent pattern of legitimacy attributed to referendums, emphasising the influence of majority margin and voter turnout. It also uncovers the critical role of status quo bias on outcome favorability and the apprehension regarding false majorities in shaping public acceptance of referendums. This research contributes to understanding the mechanisms by which democratic procedures legitimise political decisions, revealing the nuanced role of referendums in democratic governance.