Linking Preference Falsification and Election Fraud in Electoral Autocracies: The Case of Russia

Abstract

This study sheds new light on whether responses to public opinion polls, namely, preference falsification, can affect the level of election fraud by employing Kuran’s model of preference falsification, which is empirically tested on the data collected from the most recent presidential campaign in Russia (2012). My research findings reveal the presence of a statistically significant effect of preference falsification on election fraud, thus enabling me to conclude that preference falsification is, indeed, conducive to election fraud. My findings can be generalised to a broad set of electoral autocracies, enabling scholars to get a better understanding of the mechanism by which survey polls can incentivise officials to commit election fraud.