Predictive factors of failure to control bleeding and 6-week mortality after variceal hemorrhage in liver cirrhosis – a tertiary referral center experience

Abstract

IntroductionMortality from variceal bleeding remains high despite the therapeutic progress in severe cirrhosis. Understanding the predictive factors of failure to control bleeding (FTB) and mortality will lead to better future therapies. Comorbidities are thought to be important prognostic factors for variceal bleeding. The aim of the study was to assess the factors associated with FTB and with 42-day mortality and to evaluate the influence of comorbidities on these patients’ prognosis.Material and methodsWe prospectively included in the study all consecutive patients with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding presenting to the emergency room and we followed them up over 6 weeks. CirCom score and Charlson index were used for the assessment of comorbidities.ResultsOf the 138 patients included in the study, 27 (19.5%) were considered to have FTB. Child C class (74.07% vs. 32.43%, p < 0.001), Meld score (20.5 vs. 16.00, p = 0.004) and creatinine level (1.04 vs. 0.81, p = 0.01) were associated with FTB, but only Child class was independently associated with FTB in multivariate analysis (OR = 2.94, p = 0.006). Mortality at 42 days (21.7%) was influenced by the severity of the disease assessed through Child class (76.66% vs. 30.55% – Child C, p < 0.001) and MELD score (21.00 vs. 16.00, p < 0.001). Creatinine level (1.00 vs. 0.7, p = 0.02) and acute kidney injury (26.66% vs. 7.40%, p = 0.009) were also prognostic factors for the 6-week mortality. Comorbidities did not influence the mortality (CirCom > 1 (16.7% vs. 21.3%, p = 0.76) or Charlson index > 4 (36% vs. 47.2%, p = 0.41).ConclusionsThe severity of cirrhosis is an important prognostic factor for FTB and 42-day mortality. Identifying the factors associated with early mortality may help selecting patients needing more than conventional therapy.