Spatially Disaggregated input-output Tables: An Evaluation and Comparison of Survey and Nonsurvey Results

Abstract

Although nonsurvey input – output (I-O) models have been used to estimate the employment impact of particular industrial aid programmes and policies in terms of their multiplier effects, their accuracy is questionable. Nonsurvey 1 – 0 models are estimated for Wales and Staffordshire and compared with previously published surveyed 1 – 0 tables for these areas. Disaggregating national 1 – 0 tables by location quotients produced biased multiplier estimates when compared with survey results. Incorporating some local information and using constrained (for example, RAS) nonsurvey techniques improved the accuracy and correlation between survey and nonsurvey multiplier estimates. An appreciation of the bias involved in different nonsurvey techniques should allow planners to evaluate the impact of economic events more accurately.