A Conceptual Discussion and an Empirical Analysis of Commercial Land-Use Succession

Abstract

Land-use succession theory has been the most thinly developed area in the study of urban land economics. In this paper a brief review of the spotty development of the land-use succession concept is first offered, followed by a discussion of the economic arguments of commercial land-use succession and related problems in succession studies. Then, as an empirical analysis, commercial land use in downtown Denver from 1947 to 1971 is studied. Characteristics of succession are revealed first, by the description of succession by both first- and second-order probability transition matrices; and second, by an examination of the stability of succession via two different approaches. Not unexpectedly, one of the major characteristics found in the study area is the nonstationary process of land-use succession, cautioning against the danger of employing a transition matrix estimated from one time period to predict future land use.