Population Forecasting and Urban Planning Practice: A Case Study

Abstract

In this case study of population forecasting and planning practice in South Yorkshire, a number of insights are given into the issues involved in the application of quantitative methods to policy analysis. It is suggested that the users of population forecasts typically question the validity of the data and the assumptions made about future trends rather than the form of the forecasting model itself. In the case study it is also demonstrated to what extent analysts have to account for the judgements they have made about these matters when the accuracy of their forecasts is challenged by parties with strong vested interests in the outcomes. In this way the constraints that are placed on analysts working within the planning process are highlighted, and attention is drawn to some of the advantages and disadvantages of their position.