Economic—Demographic Models for Forecasting Interregional Migration

Abstract

A class of spatial economic–demographic forecasting models is proposed. The models combine elements of traditional Markov and economic gravity models. A base-period probability structure is modified by the changing relative distribution of economic opportunity. Estimation issues are addressed, and an empirical application to US interstate migration during the late 1970s is described. It is contended that the framework represents a merger of past demographic and economic modeling traditions in a spatial interaction framework.