Interurban Migration and the Dynamics of a System of Cities: 1. The Stochastic Framework with an Application to the French Urban System

Abstract

A stochastic framework for the modelling of interurban migration is presented. The model is an extension of a recently developed master-equation approach to interregional migration. The population dynamics of the French urban system, described by a set of 78 cities, is investigated within the period 1954–82. The importance of synergy effects (self-reinforcing collective effects) as well as socioeconomic macrovariables for the understanding of urban dynamics becomes obvious. A forecasting of urban dynamics (relative urban population, growth rates of the cities) for a closer period, year 2002, by using two different kinds of scenarios, confirm this result and give further insight into the nested structure of urban systems.