Cumulative Stress and Cumulative Inertia: A Behavioral Model of the Decision to Move

Abstract

A model of the probability of moving which incorporates aspects of the independent-trials process, the stage in the life cycle, and the concept of cumulative inertia is formulated. The model is based on the interaction of two forces. On the one hand there is a certain resistance to moving (cumulative inertia) and on the other the household may be dissatisfied with certain attributes of the present dwelling and its surroundings (residential stress). The probability of moving is a function of the resultant of these two conflicting forces. The model is designed not only to predict who will move (those individuals with high residential stress relative to their resistance to moving), but also to predict how an individual's probability of moving is likely to change over time. Some simple and limited simulations suggest that the model will capture rather well the different kinds of mobility rates which are observed from empirical data sets.