Determinants of Fertility in Urban and Rural Kenya: Estimates and a Simulation of the Impact of Education Policy

Abstract

The continuing high fertility rate in Kenya is of considerable concern as the resulting high rate of population growth makes improvements in living standards difficult, if not impossible. In this paper, the determinants of fertility in urban and rural areas of Kenya are examined through estimation of a probit model which includes variables in three categories: economic, biological, and social or cultural. Also simulated is the effect of increasing the levels of female education on the total fertility rate and the total number of births. Results show that improvements in female education can result in a substantial decrease in the number of births in Kenya, thereby suggesting that formulation of government policy in this area is desirable.