The Cyclic Process Decision-Heuristic: An Application in Time-Allocation Modeling

Abstract

Models of human behavior can be evaluated against a number of criteria. For example, does the model incorporate important exogenous variables, and are the predictions of the model specific enough for policy analysis? In this paper, the author addresses the decision-heuristic component of human behavior modeling. The term ‘heuristic’ refers to the process individuals follow when making a decision, and a heuristic, in the modeling sense, provides the framework for deriving mathematical expressions which link an individual's decisions to behavioral goals, exogenous factors, and other decisions. The author presents the cyclic process decision-heuristic and its application in the derivation of a mathematical model of individual time-allocation behavior in two-spouse households. The heuristic incorporates specific hypotheses concerning human motivation. A mathematical model is derived for the heuristic, which is a step-by-step process. The author presents results of applying the model to explain variation in time-budget data collected by the Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 1975–1976.