The Household-Composition Matrix as a Notion in Multiregional Forecasting of Population and Households

Abstract

The household-composition matrix has been used in the past for single-region projection of population and households; here the application is expanded to multiregional projection of population and households. Geographic regions of residence are considered as household categories, and a household-composition matrix is constructed to indicate average numbers of persons by age per household, for each of the regions considered. Changes over time in the elements of the matrix occur according to the aging of population and according to constraints indicated by observed patterns of past household mobility. These patterns are listed as six possible household mobility types, which in turn, are viewed as constraints within which population growth takes place. With the assumption that external net-migration to the regions, as a whole, is known for a projected period, an iterative procedure is offered to estimate future population by age and region, as well as future number and average size of households by region.