Modelling Rural Population Change in the Cilento Region of Southern Italy

Abstract

Established models of rural population change generally depend upon settlement size and distance from a major town or city as explanatory variables. These models may have little relevance in Mediterranean environments where other factors are of greater significance. In the Italian district of the Cilento, multiple regression analysis showed the presence or absence of tourism to be most important in explaining rural population change between 1961 and 1971, with other important factors being the state of local access and the altitude of settlements. It is suggested that there are no universal explanations of rural population change but that a family of models may be put forward with each one relevant in a different cultural and developmental context.