Dealing with Uncertainty and Fuzziness in Development Planning: A Simulation of High-Technology Industrial Location Decisionmaking by the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract

A planning simulation approach sensitive to the behavioral and contextual environment of industrial location decisionmaking is developed. Its conceptual and methodological basis is in sharp contrast to the neoclassical premise of location theory, in dealing with contingency, collectivity, multiplicity, and uncertainty. Industrial location decisionmaking is approximated with a multidimensional simulation of (intraurban) locational choice. The likelihood of the location of high-technology firms in an ‘incubator’ and/or a ‘research park’ environment is derived by using Saaty's analytic hierarchy process. From the simulation output a means of fine-tuning public and private objectives and priorities is provided, and alternative policies for development planning to affect a desirable outcome of industrial location within a targeted urban redevelopment zone are suggested. The variance in the degree of uncertainty which bears upon the multiple dimensions of the contemporary problem of deciding upon industrial location is shown explicitly.