Problematising the ‘Orderly’ Aesthetic Assumptions of Forecasts of East–West Migration in the European Union

Abstract

This paper critically examines migration forecasts: numerical guesstimates of future patterns of migration flows. In the enlarging European Union, migration forecasts are often carried out upon requests from mass-migration-fearing policy makers. Most forecasts are based on key principles and working practices adhered to in neoclassical economics and spatial science—notably, equilibrium and place. Offering apparent numerical certainty, migration forecasts speak to a latent desire for aesthetic sociospatial order. Migration is considered a disequilibrium phenomenon, and linear movements and final destinations are presupposed. However, it is argued that these ‘orderly’ aesthetic assumptions do not correspond with ‘messy’ real East–West migration dynamics in the EU, which are foremost temporary and circulatory in nature. Drawing on evidence from the Netherlands, the paper concludes by suggesting that migration forecasts may indirectly strengthen claims for restrictive migration policy.