Modelling Urban—Rural Population Growth in China

Abstract

The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban—rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban—rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China. Two important components of urban population growth—rural to urban migration and transition—are considered. In previous research, rural to urban population transition was ignored and thus urbanization levels may be significantly underprojected. An accounts-based urban—rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established in this research. These models are used to make urban—rural population projections for the period 1988–2087 under various fertility rate assumptions.