A Predictive Model of Urban Stock and Activity: 1. Theoretical Considerations

Abstract

Urban systems are dynamic and hence require predictive models that incorporate the element of time more explicitly. Comparative static models of the Lowry type may be embellished by the use of the entropy-maximizing methodology and by slight reformulations of the equations by the introduction of simple lags. The result is a quasi-dynamic or dynamic model of urban spatial structure. This is the first of two papers, in which the issues involved in the construction of predictive models are discussed and the equation systems of the model developed. The operationalization of the concepts and the empirical development of the model for a Nigerian city will be discussed in the paper to follow.