Voided Ballots in the 2012 Parliamentary Election in Serbia

Abstract

The “white ballots” campaign in the 2012 parliamentary election in Serbia‎was accompanied by a change in the portion of invalid ballots, but also in‎their correlation with socio-demographic variables. When the percentage of‎invalid votes in the three previous elections is analyzed using the generalized‎least squares (GLS) multiple regression analysis, the percentage of inhabitants‎with incomplete primary education represents the best predictor. The percentage‎of individuals with primary education is also statistically relevant, just in‎the opposite (negative) direction, and less predictive. When GLS is applied to‎invalid votes in the 2012 election, incomplete primary education is positively,‎and primary education is negatively correlated with the criterion. The percentage‎of illiterates, the share of people over 65 years of age and the degree‎of urbanization are significantly, but negatively related to the criterion. The‎consequences of the 2012 election outcome were considered in the light of the‎regression to competitive authoritarianism.‎