National trends and projection of chronic kidney disease incidence according to etiology from 1990 to 2030 in Iran: a Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study

Abstract

Objectives: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health problem worldwide. Predicting CKD incidence rates and case numbers at the national and global levels is vital for planning CKD prevention programs.Methods: Data on CKD incidence rates and case numbers in Iran from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease online database. The average annual percentage change was computed to determine the temporal trends in CKD age-standardized incidence rates from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the CKD incidence rate and case numbers through 2030.Results: Nationally, CKD cases increased from 97,300 in 1990 to 315,500 in 2019. The age-specific CKD incidence rate increased from 168.52 per 100,000 to 382.98 per 100,000 during the same period. Between 2020 and 2030, the number of CKD cases is projected to rise to 423,300. The age-specific CKD incidence rate is projected to increase to 469.04 in 2030 (95% credible interval [CrI], 399.20-538.87). In all age groups and etiological categories, the CKD incidence rate is forecasted to increase by 2030. Conclusions: CKD case numbers and incidence rates are anticipated to increase in Iran through 2030. The high level of CKD incidence in people with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and glomerulonephritis, as well as in older people, suggests a deficiency of attention to these populations in current prevention plans and highlights their importance in future programs for the national control of CKD.