Tobacco consumption, sales, and output as monitoring indicators in the era of the tobacco endgame

Abstract

Objectives: The consumption, sales, and output of tobacco products each suggest different areas of intervention for tobacco control. In the era of the tobacco endgame, as increasingly stronger supply-side measures are implemented, multifaceted indicators that assess both supply and/or demand are required. We aimed to estimate the consumption of cigarette and heated tobacco products (HTPs) and sought agreement between the various indicators.Methods: The annual cigarette and HTP consumption in 2014–2020 was calculated using the frequency and intensity of cigarette use from representative surveys of adults and adolescents by sex and age. Sales and output data were acquired from governmental sources. Spearman correlation coefficients and Bland–Altman plots were used to compare the indicators.Results: Tobacco output, cigarette sales, and cigarette consumption were greatest in 2014. The HTP consumption calculated for 2020 was 292.28 million packs. Cigarette consumption and sales correlated significantly, as did tobacco output and tobacco sales. A Bland–Altman plot comparing the difference between cigarette consumption and sales showed that this difference was largest in 2014, immediately before cigarette prices increased. With the exception of a single year, all cigarette consumption values were within the limits of agreement for cigarette sales and tobacco output.Conclusions: Our analyses showed agreement between demand-side (tobacco consumption) and supply-side (sales and output) indicators. We recommend using all indicators to monitor the impacts of tobacco control on both demand and supply sides. The systematic use of various indicators is critical to achieve the end of the tobacco epidemic.