Modeling Thai Concentrated Latex Sector

Abstract

This study aims to identify the factors that influence the dynamics of key variables, particularly output, price, and employment, in the concentrated latex sector. To this end, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) approach is utilized and a Bayesian estimation method is employed using monthly data from the Office of Industrial Economics database for domestic price, demand, and export of concentrate latex from January 2016 to January 2022, with a total of 61 observations. The results suggest that a technological shock increases output and employment while reducing output price. The cost related shocks, on the other hand, decrease output and employment while increasing output price. Furthermore, external shocks cause a shift in imports and exports and domestic final prices of concentrated latex. Therefore, it is strongly recommended to enhance technology, labor skills, and the domestic concentrated latex industry's capacity.