Analysis of Primary Energy Consumption in the United States

Abstract

This article examines the overall trend in primary energy consumption from 1635 to 2020 in the United States. Based on the exponential growth model, the annual energy consumption average growth rate and the process characteristic time are determined. The anamorphosis method is used to search for the logistic model parameters. Long-term trends analysis and the corresponding time series fluctuations are carried out. For the fluctuations' analysis, the trend component is preliminarily excluded based on the proportions theory. Near-period values are determined using shift and autocorrelation functions. To predict further energy consumption dynamics, the ARIMA autoregressive model is used, on which basis a local increase in the annual energy consumption level to 97.66 quads Btu is expected by 2025. The US energy consumption dynamics by resource type is considered. A forecast up to 2025 for the primary energy resources consumption shares in their total volume is built on an autoregressive model basis