Hypotheses for Primary Energy Use, Electricity Use and CΟ2 Emissions of Global Computing and Its Shares of the Total Between 2020 and 2030

Abstract

There is no doubt that the economic and computing activity related to the digital sector will ramp up faster in the present decade than in the last. Moreover, computing infrastructure is one of three major drivers of new electricity use alongsidefuture and current hydrogen production and battery electric vehicles charging. Here is proposed a trajectory in this decade for CO2 emissions associated with this digitalization and its share of electricity and energy generation as a whole. The roadmap for major sources of primary energy and electricity and associated CO2 emissions areprojected and connected to the probable power use of the digital industry. The truncation error for manufacturing related CO2 emissions may be 0.8 Gt or more indicating a larger share of manufacturing and absolute digital CO2 emissions.While remaining at a moderate share of global CO2 emissions (4-5%), the resulting digital CO2 emissions will likely rise from 2020 to 2030. The opposite may only happen if the electricity used to run especially data centers and production plants is produced locally (next to the data centers and plants) from renewable sources and data intensity metrics grow slower than expected.