Using A Study of the Social Challenges of Urbanization in the Next 30 Years based on Age Transition and Comprehensive Plans for Iranian Cities: The Case of Hamedan City

Abstract

An examination of population growth in Iran during the past three decades shows that the sharp increase in the rate of birth in the 1980s significantly expanded the base of the age pyramid of the Iranian population in that decade. Throughout time, this expanded surface has gradually transitioned to the higher levels of the pyramid and has now reached the age group of 25-29 and will soon reach the age group of 20-24, two age groups that form 1/4 of Iran’s population. Considering this and the expansion of urbanization in recent years, elderly citizens will constitute a large part of Iran’s urban population in the next 30 years. An urban elderly population has special needs and requires special social spaces. But a closer look at the comprehensive plans proposed for Iranian cities, which often have been prepared with the next 20 years in mind, shows that most of the government’s policies and plans in cities involve the needs of the younger generation. In other words, the current status of Iranian cities and the proposed plans will not meet the needs of the elderly in the coming decades. Using documentary research and analysis of the contemporary structural maps of Hamedan City, this study examined the urbanization challenges resulting from age transition in 2041 to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) efficient requirements in quality-of-life. The findings indicate that Hamedan’s current form and its urban development plans have fundamental flaws because of inattention to the phenomenon of age transition based on United Nations (UN) policies in the determination of land uses and accessibility to public spaces for elderly citizens and this creates social challenges in the city.