Active Faults: Geomatics and Soft Computing Techniques for Analysis, Monitorig and Risk Prevention in Central Tyrrhenian Calabria (Italy)

Abstract

Geodynamic phenomena monitoring is constantly evolving; however, earthquake prediction is still impossible. The acquired big data over time availability allows us to create specific models to simulate these phenomena. Generally, earthquakes happen in clusters, and major aftershocks are preceded by other small aftershocks. Applying mathematical models to the swarm measurement data provides the seismic event probability of a given magnitude in a given region. Predictive systems of seismological phenomena and soft computing techniques can therefore help to obtain good choices for the citizens’ safety when a given danger threshold is exceeded. In this regard, the possibility to have significant and reliable displacement data of network points repeated over time deriving from GPS monitoring networks set up across the monitored faults, as well as the use and implementation of dynamic GIS that also use “predictive” layers based on the use of neural networks and soft computing, can provide on one hand databases useful for the implementation of predictive models (soft computing techniques that use displacements as input data) and on the other hand valid information on propagation of the isoseismal (starting from information relating to the study area, the hypocenter of the considered earthquakes and the seismic intensity determined according to standard procedures). The objective of the following work is therefore to present and analyze the results of a prototypal predictive system developed by the Reggio Calabria Geomatics Laboratory. This prototype use a GIS systems and soft computing techniques. It allows on one hand to calculate the probability of seismic event's occurrence (event of known intensity that follow another also known) and on the other to identify and predict the isoseismal's propagation. The Gis system incorporate and implement rigorous methodologies for displacements computing on GPS networks repeated over time, while the soft computing uses the surface's displacements points monitored by a GPS network and the events that took place in their surroundings. The methodology was tested in the central Tyrrhenian area of Calabria (where there are a series of active faults). focusing in particular on the Falerna -Fuscaldo fault (Italy).