Impact of Population Growth and Climate Change on the Resilience of Florina’s Hydrosystem

Abstract

This research work deals with an integrated assessment regarding a hydrosystem’s resilience under changing conditions. Particularly, the analysis is performed for Florina, a rural area in Northern Greece. In Florina, four reservoirs operate to meet water requirements for agriculture and industrial use, as well as, to satisfy the urban water demand of the local population. The analysis initially includes the hydrologic simulation of the natural system that is achieved by developing and implementing a hydrologic model on a monthly basis, using the available historic data for the region. It also incorporates the development of the reservoirs’ monthly water balance models to assess the reliability of the system based on the current water requirements and the historic datasets. In terms of rational water resources management under changing conditions, various combinations are investigated; all of which are based on four main scenarios (i.e., zero, three climate change scenarios, population growth scenario, scenarios regarding different distribution of irrigation water). The comparison among the aforementioned scenarios is finally shown through the variation in the hydrosystem’s reliability to meet water demands. Results show that each reservoir presents its own behavior with respect to its particular technical characteristics and the scenario performed. In general, reliability decreases, while, the implementation of the scenarios that introduce different practices regarding water distribution for irrigation showed that this practice can ensure a relatively higher reliability to the local hydrosystem