Projected changes in high temperatures in coastal tourism destinations: A case study of the Turquoise Coast

Author:

Turp Mustafa Tufan1ORCID,An Nazan1ORCID,Bilgin Başak1ORCID,Demiralay Zekican1ORCID,Kurnaz Mehmet Levent1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. BOĞAZİÇİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ VE POLİTİKALARI UYGULAMA VE ARAŞTIRMA MERKEZİ

Abstract

The effects of climate change may manifest themselves in different ways, but when it comes to coastal tourism, extreme temperatures, which are the unavoidable consequences of climate change, come to the fore. The study examined the changes that extreme temperatures can make on major coastal tourism destinations by using such indices as hot summer days, tropical nights, and days with dangerous apparent temperature (> 40.6 °C). Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, increases in these indices are expected for Antalya, Aydın, Balıkesir, İzmir, and Muğla on the Turquoise Coast in the near (2021-2050) and distant (2071-2100) future. The projections based on both scenarios indicate that there might be a rise in the number of hot summer days, tropical nights, and days exceeding the critical human thermal comfort conditions on the Turquoise Coast. Expected increases may reach the highest values under the pessimistic scenario at the end of the century. The increase in these indices caused by rising temperatures may adversely affect the tourism sector due to changes in tourism demands, destinations, and seasonal shifts.

Publisher

Marmara University

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