Uncertainty in reservoir modeling

Abstract

Uncertainty is due to incomplete and imprecise knowledge as a result of limited sampling of the subsurface heterogeneities. Well data and seismic data have incomplete coverage and finite resolution. The interpretations are uncertain. Reservoirs are heterogeneous and difficult to predict away from wells. Ignoring uncertainty and locking in important model parameters and choices amounts to an assumption of perfect knowledge and is generally an unacceptable approach. Uncertainty must be explicitly modeled. Understanding the (1) sources of uncertainty, (2) methods to represent uncertainty, (3) the formalisms of uncertainty, and (4) uncertainty modeling methods and workflows were essential for the integration of all reservoir information sources and providing good models for decision making in the presence of uncertainty.