Synthetic modeling and field GPR survey to understand the near-surface deformation induced by coseismic groundwater dynamics following the 2019 Mirpur earthquake in Pakistan

Abstract

The Mirpur earthquake of Mw 5.8 on 24 September 2019 severely damaged villages in the epicentral area. The earthquake-triggered ground dynamics produced widespread liquefaction features on the surface (e.g., fractured road structure and sand boils) and in the shallow subsurface (e.g., elevated groundwater table, fractures, and sand dikes). Due to complexity of liquefaction-induced deformation and timing of field surveys, the structural and hydrogeologic features that develop in the near surface during seismic events are often poorly resolved on ground-penetrating-radar (GPR) profiles. To track and delineate the internal architecture and coseismic changes in groundwater levels and/or pressures due to liquefaction, a GPR survey was carried out soon after the Mirpur earthquake. The sudden pore water pressure changes in the shallow aquifer system caused a rise in the water table via upward groundwater movement and fracturing followed by rapid infiltration. This cascade phenomenon has adverse effects on soil, water resources, civil infrastructure, and public health and safety. To better understand induced changes in the physical properties of road infrastructure and the shallow subsurface, we performed synthetic modeling of electromagnetic wave propagation by employing the finite-difference time-domain method. Based on the available information at multiple scales (borehole and geophysical), subsurface physical models representing the most common and important coseismic features were considered for synthetic modeling. Likewise, synthetic tests of paved road were conducted to simulate the radar response of structural discontinuities (fractures) developed at different angles. To validate synthetic results by identifying a similar dynamic response of the induced hydrogeologic changes in the form of coseismic liquefaction features, a field GPR survey was conducted. Our results clearly demonstrate that the GPR technique is a potential candidate for hydrogeophysical detection and characterization of features of interest in the case of paved roads as well as agricultural and residential areas. Additionally, the successful application of GPR proves it to be a cost-effective, high-resolution, and speedy tool for better assessment of hydrogeologic hazard, socioeconomic consequences, and mitigation in the Mirpur area. The proposed approach may find applications in other seismically active regions around the world.