Empirical analysis of poverty dynamics in central Asia: Unraveling the vicious circle of systemic factors and policy implications

Abstract

Objective: This research empirically analyzes the dynamics of poverty in Central Asia, incorporating selected factors into a proposed model known as the vicious circle of poverty. The model illustrates a closed cycle in which the development of one factor directly influences the preservation of another, creating a complex web of interdependencies. Methods: Regression analysis, adapted to address data limitations, was employed to assess the impact of these factors on poverty. The study encompasses 11 periods, necessitating the use of weighted ordinary least squares due to data constraints. Results: The persistence of poverty in Central Asia is rooted in systemic factors, resulting in cyclical patterns in some nations. While Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan presently lack vicious poverty circles, their vulnerability to such circles remains, requiring substantial transformations. To mitigate the risk of enduring poverty, a comprehensive approach is recommended, encompassing policy measures tailored to the most vulnerable segments of society. Conclusions: The study underscores that the persistence of poverty in Central Asia is driven by systemic factors, resulting in cyclical patterns. The research highlights the need for substantial transformations to mitigate the risk of enduring poverty, emphasizing a comprehensive approach that includes policy measures tailored to the most vulnerable segments of society. The findings provide a basis for developing strategies to reduce poverty and enhance welfare in Central Asia.