A genetic-epidemiology modeling framework for malaria mosquitoes and disease

Author:

Mohammed-Awel Jemal,Gumel Abba

Abstract

The large-scale and widespread use of insecticide-based mosquito control has resulted in a dramatic reduction of malaria burden in endemic areas over the last two decades, prompting a renewed concerted global effort to eradicate malaria. Such a widespread and large-scale use of insecticides has, however, resulted in the emergence of insecticide resistance in the endemic areas. This study presents a genetic-epidemiology mathematical modeling framework for assessing the impacts of insecticide resistance on the population abundance of malaria mosquitoes and disease. In particular, two mathematical models are presented. In the first model, insecticide resistance is determined by a single gene with one allele (monoploid), and in the second resistance is determined by a single gene with two alleles (diploid). The models, which take the form of deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations, are rigorously analysed to gain insight into the asymptotic stability properties of their associated non-trivial disease-free equilibria. These analyses revealed that, for each of the two models, the associated generalized non-trivial co-existent disease-free equilibrium is globally-asymptotically stable for a special case (with negligible disease-induced mortality in the human host population) if the corresponding reproduction number of the model is less than unity (the parameters related to the fitness costs of insecticide resistance play a major role in bringing, and maintaining, the value of the reproduction numbers below one). Using numerical simulations, we identified two scenarios, in parameter space, where malaria can be eliminated or persist in the population even when all mosquitoes are fully resistant at steady-state. The study shows that the prospect for malaria elimination is promising using existing insecticide-based mosquito control interventions. It further emphasizes the need to generate the genotype-specific laboratory and field mosquito data needed for more realistic estimation of the parameters related to the fitness costs of insecticide resistance in malaria mosquitoes.

Publisher

American Mathematical Society

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