Erdogan against Turkey։ Stalemate of “Patriot-F-35-S-400” triangle

Abstract

After the attempted military coup in 2016, Turkey began to show interest in the Russian S-400 systems, and initially there was an impression that Turkey was only bluffing, was simply using Russia in its relations with the United States (as it had previously done with China (CPMIEC) in the same matter) and was seeking to show the US that it had an alternative (S-400). However, Turkey showed its persistence, and was able to buy these systems quite quickly, despite the fact that the United States strongly opposed it. In this context, this study aims to clarify the main reasons for Turkey's persistence on this issue, taking into account the personal factor of Erdogan.  The article also analyzes the authoritarian strengthening of militarism and Erdogan’s personal factor for buying the S-400, who was the beneficiary of buying the S-400 systems. This article shows that sometimes Erdogan’s personal interests and Turkey’s state interests should be separated from each other, that in some cases Erdogan’s personal interests and Turkey’s state interests may or may not coincide partially or completely․ It is emphasized that in each case of conflict of interests, Erdogan’s personal interests prevail, that the problems should be examined first of all from the perspective of Erdogan’s personal interests and not from Turkey’s state interests, otherwise many things remain unclear and unexplained. Focusing on Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 systems, this study also asks why NATO member Turkey even after the purchase has not given up those Russian systems and why it still continues to persist․ The topic is also actual for Armenia, as it is related to the sphere of the Turkish Air Force and the defense capability of Turkey in general, its prospects. The article describes the brief history of Turkey’s purchase of S-400 systems, analyzes the motives of that move from territorial, temporal, cause-and-effect, and other perspectives, and presents Turkey’s attempts to get out of the existing situation. This study aims to identify the main trends underlying the conflict between Erdogan and the Turkish political elite over the purchase of the S-400.