Affiliation:
1. Research Center in Applied Economics for Development CREAD
Abstract
Mortality forecasting is much needed for population projections and actuarial calculations. Forecasting mortality of males and females in an independent way leads in most of cases to some incoherence regarding the expected male-female mortality evolution. To avoid a possible unrealistic convergence/divergence in this sense, a coherent mortality forecasting is required. In this paper, we compare the performance of two coherent models, namely the model of Li and Lee (2005) and that of Hyndman et al. (2013) on forecasting male and female mortality of the Algerian population. Results show that the first model provides better goodness-of-fit but less coherence compared to the second one.
Reference34 articles.
1. Akaike, H. (1973). Information, theory and extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle, 2nd Edition, Budapest, p. 125-129.
2. Bell, W. R. (1997). Comparing and Assessing Time Series Methods for Forecasting Age-Specific Fertility and Mortality Rates. Journal of Official Statistics, 13, p. 270-303.
3. Bongaarts, J. (2004). Population aging and the rising cost of public pensions. Population and Development Review, 30, p. 1-23.
4. Bourgeois, J. (1946). De la mesure de la mortalité infantile. Population, 1, p. 53-68.
5. Burnhan, K.P., & Anderson, D.R. (1998). Model selection and inference. Ed. Springer-Verlag, 1998, New York, USA.
Cited by
1 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献