Monte Carlo Sensitivities and Performance of Woven Deployable Entry Systems

Abstract

A material response model is developed for the determination of erosion rates and thermal response of woven materials to enable accurate thermal protection material sizing and future missions to Venus and giant planets. The stagnation-point thermal response is evaluated using the model developed in Icarus, a material response finite volume solver. A Monte Carlo global sensitivity analysis is further performed using a stand-alone Python wrapper script developed to determine the interactions between key parameters in the material surface energy balance of the one-dimensional simulation, such as the convective blowing correction parameter and weave material properties. The time-accurate material response for the dual-weave erosion and surface temperatures show good agreement with stagnation flat face arcjet tests involving time-varying aeroheating–cooling cycles. The high-fidelity Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis technique was used to address challenges in thermal protection sizing for the Adaptive Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT) system, a low ballistic coefficient hypersonic decelerator. The results provide new correlations for such weaves involving carbon–air equilibrium oxidation and wall enthalpy imposition through a B-prime formalism. Through the multivariate regression analyses and uncertainty rankings performed, only two properties were found to largely contribute to the transient thermal response of the gore, with emissivity contributing up to [Formula: see text] of the total output uncertainty at the front face and [Formula: see text] at the back face.