Dynamic Model Fidelity Effects on Covariance Based Track Association

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of covariance-based track association with varying levels of dynamic model fidelity. To minimize the dynamic nonlinearities, the mean modified equinoctial (MME) elements are used. Ground-based radar measurements are generated by propagating the osculating orbits of 100 space objects in low Earth orbit using a [Formula: see text] spherical harmonic gravity model (JGM-3). Atmospheric drag, solar radiation, and third-body gravity are not considered. To associate two tracks, the two sets of states and covariances are propagated to a common time. The Mahalanobis distance between the two tracks is then used to determine whether they associate. A higher-fidelity dynamic model for state propagation improves association performance, while the fidelity of the dynamic model for covariance propagation does not have a significant impact. The MME-based track association demonstrates excellent performance when incorporating [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] in the MME state propagation as well as the MME covariance propagation with [Formula: see text]. It achieves an accuracy of 99.92%, a true positive sensitivity of 92.43%, a false negative sensitivity of 7.57%, a false positive sensitivity of 0%, and a true negative sensitivity of 100% when associating tracks separated by 10 days.