1. Total Baseline Acauisition andLCC The previous unit production satellite costsarerolled up to include the total acquisition costs beginning with a demonstration phasein FY-2001 and continuing through Pre-EMD, EMD andproduction to achieve a FOG by m-2013. Operations and sustainmentcostscontinue for 20 yearsbeyond FOC to maintain the samelevel of constellation operational availability until FY-2033. Figure 4 summarizesthe total LCC rangeestimateasbeing between $20B and$21.5B (in FY-1998 dollars). The red bar covers the costdifference betweenthe high andthe low estimateof $1.5B to accountfor program risk and overall costuncertainty.
2. We alsoassumefor option 1 that the sameoverall 92% successfor satellite operations appliesfor useof commercial RLVs. We assumeboth EELVs and ' RLVs will haveproven launch service capabilities in place and available in thepost-2010 time frame. We also assumethat no major DOD or Air Force investment for commercial RLVs is required andall the start-up development funds come through civil, private or public investmentsWe assumethat RLVs will be selectedby the government and specifically the Air Force after consistent commercial launch successestakeplace, the commercial marketplace has taken hold, andthesecontractors areconsidereda long-term financially stableenterprise.For this analysis, thelaunch successrate for option 1is also kept the sameasthe baselinevalue to "level the playing field" and avoid biasing the analysisresults either in favor of EELVs or commercial RLVs.