Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia

Published:2016-09-21 Issue:1 Volume:23 Page:78-98
ISSN:1354-8166
Container-title:Tourism Economics
language:en
Short-container-title:Tourism Economics

Author:

Apergis Nicholas¹,Mervar Andrea²,Payne James E.³

Affiliation:

1. University of Piraeus, Greece

2. Institute of Economics, Croatia

3. Georgia College & State University, USA

Abstract

This study examines the performance of four alternative univariate seasonal time series forecasting models (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average [SARIMA], SARIMA with Fourier transformation, ARAR, and fractionally integrated autoregressive-moving average) of tourist arrivals to 20 Croatian counties and the City of Zagreb. Both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts reveal that the SARIMA model with Fourier transformation consistently outperforms the other models across the respective regions investigated.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management,Geography, Planning and Development

Link

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.5367/te.2015.0499

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