Dating and Synchronizing Tourism Growth Cycles

Abstract

The authors use the non-parametric method proposed by Harding and Pagan (2003) to date tourism growth cycles. This study is among the first to use robust, transparent and replicable dating rules in the context of economic tourism activity cycles. On the basis of a cycle indicator function, the authors are able to establish a greater degree of cycle synchronization of tourism demand than that observed at the economic cycle level, and, by means of a recursive correlation coefficient, they conclude that this degree of cycle synchronization has increased over the years. To analyse the presence of a time lag between turning points of economic cycles and tourism demand, they suggest a lag concordance index. Observing cycles and producing dating indicator functions are important in examining potential asymmetric behaviour associated with tourism economic phases and are useful for forecasting purposes.