Pacific salmon of Russian origin: what catches can we count on?

Abstract

Some parameters of the abundance dynamics for the pacific salmon of Russian origin are specified and volume of their possible catch are substantiated for the next decade. The average annual catch for 1907–2022 is amounted as 250 thousand tons. Cyclic variations were observed within this time with the intervals of 72 years between the minimal values and 75 years between the maximums. The high catches were landed during app. 35 years, and the low catches — during app. 40 years, so the periods of high and low abundance were approximately equal (35–40 years). The harvest runs occurred mostly in odd years; the dominant years (odd either even) changed usually when the abundance had increasing. The high level of abundance (> 250 . 103 t, not below of 200 . 103 t in the years of the worst run) is expected in the nearest decade, until the middle 2030s. After this period of high abundance, the stocks of domestic salmon will be insufficient for profitable commercial fishery on majority of existing fishing grounds.