Exploring COVID-19 Progression Patterns

Abstract

Background: A novel coronavirus COVID-19 causing acute illness with severe symptoms, represents the causative agent of a contagious potentially lethal disease. COVID-19 was declared as pandemic by WHO. Aims: This Research aims to study the COVID-19 outbreaks in the fifteen most impacted countries in the world, find the relationship between the precautionary measures of governments and COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths, and to forecast the pandemic in the following short time. Methods: The global numbers of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 were obtained from the European Union Data. The data of governmentsʹ response actions for COVID-19 were estimated using the Oxford study. Box-Jenkins methodology, ARIMA model, R package were used in data analysis. Results: The rate of COVID-19 confirmed cases is 0.4 per thousand, and the death case rate is 0.03 per thousand of the world population. The rate of death cases was the lowest in Brazil, and the highest in Spain. The usefulness of precautionary measures and its effect on the number of confirmed cases and deaths in the different countries were estimated. A high correlation was established concerning the applied measurements and time of application. The model used for forecasting the expected cases was consistent with our tested result, while the model for forecasting death showed a fair consistently. Conclusion: We conclude that the health system must be reviewed, and these precautionary measures evaluated whether they are beneficial or more stringent conditions should be imposed.